How Promotion Decisions Are Actually Made: In The Room
Fortune 200 advisor reveals what actually happens in promotion meetings. The first question executives ask about candidates might surprise you.
While you're perfecting your quarterly reports and hoping someone notices your contributions, here's the first question they ask about you in promotion meetings.
I'm sitting in the executive conference room, promotion planning spreadsheet open on the wall screen. Twenty-three names. Three hours blocked. Annual compensation decisions that will impact careers, mortgages, and family plans.
The VP opens with the same question he asks every year, for every person: "Did they ask or push for a promotion - specific raise? Are they a flight risk?"
If the answer is no, the conversation is over. Standard 3% increase. Next name.
I've been in dozens of these meetings as a senior manager at Fortune 200 companies. What I'm about to share will fundamentally change how you think about career advancement - because the promotion meeting you're not invited to operates by completely different rules than the ones you've been taught.
The brutal truth: While you're optimizing your performance and waiting to be noticed, executives are making promotion decisions based on two simple criteria that have nothing to do with how well you do your job.
The Question That Changes Everything
"Did they ask or push for a promotion - specific raise? Are they a flight risk?"
That's it. That's the opening question for every single person under review.
If you've never explicitly asked for advancement or demonstrated that you might leave, you get categorized as "content" - meaning you'll accept whatever standard increase the compensation pool allows. Usually 2-4%. The conversation moves to the next name within thirty seconds.
If you have asked - if you've made it clear you want specific advancement or could be recruited elsewhere - suddenly there's a discussion. Budget gets allocated. Creative solutions emerge. People start problem-solving your career progression.
Here's what shocked me the first time I witnessed this process: Performance reviews weren't even opened for most people. If someone hadn't signaled intent to advance or leave, leadership assumed their current performance level was sufficient for retention. The detailed evaluation only happened for people who'd made promotion requests or seemed at risk of departing.
The psychology is brutally efficient: Give meaningful increases to people who want them (and might leave to get them). Give standard increases to everyone else. Maximize retention while minimizing compensation costs.
The question reveals the fundamental misunderstanding most employees have about advancement: Companies don't promote their best performers. They promote people who actively want promotion and have signaled that intent clearly.
How Promotion Decisions Really Get Made
Let me walk you through a typical three-hour promotion planning session I attended last year.
The room: CEO, Chief People Officer, three VPs, two senior directors. No middle managers, no direct supervisors, no HR business partners. Just decision-makers with budget authority.
The document: A spreadsheet with current salary, role, tenure, last increase, and two critical columns: "Promotion Request Y/N" and "Flight Risk Assessment."
The time allocation: Roughly 3-8 minutes per person, depending on their answers to the opening question.
Real examples from that meeting:
Sarah, Marketing Analyst, 3 years tenure:
"Did she ask for promotion?" "No."
"Flight risk?" "Low - seems happy."
Decision: 3% standard increase.
Total discussion time: 45 seconds.
Marcus, Operations Coordinator, 18 months tenure:
"Did he ask for promotion?" "Yes - specifically requested Operations Manager role and laid out readiness criteria."
"Flight risk?" "Medium - has been interviewing, getting LinkedIn recruiter messages."
Decision: 15-minute discussion about creating new Senior Coordinator role, 18% salary increase, clear promotion timeline.
They literally redesigned his career path in real-time.
Jennifer, Senior Analyst, 5 years tenure:
"Did she ask for promotion?" "No direct ask, but mentioned 'growth opportunities' in her review."
"Flight risk?" "Unknown."
Decision: 4% increase. "Let's see if she becomes more specific about what she wants."
Total discussion time: 2 minutes.
The pattern was undeniable: Specific requests generated creative solutions. Vague desires for "growth" were ignored. No requests at all meant standard treatment.
What struck me most: These executives weren't trying to be unfair. They were optimizing for retention and budget efficiency. People who ask for advancement get attention because they've demonstrated they want it enough to potentially leave for it. People who don't ask get treated as content with their current situation.
The system assumes silence equals satisfaction.
The Flight Risk Factor
The second part of that opening question - "Are they a flight risk?" - reveals another crucial dynamic most people completely misunderstand.
Being perceived as a flight risk isn't a negative - it's the single most powerful leverage you can have in promotion discussions.
I've watched executives approve salary increases 20-30% above standard for people they were worried about losing. Not because those people were dramatically outperforming others, but because leadership couldn't afford the disruption and replacement costs.
Flight risk indicators that trigger retention discussions:
External interview activity (yes, they often know)
LinkedIn profile updates and increased activity
Industry networking events attendance
Recruiter inquiries mentioned casually
Professional development outside company programs
Conversations about career advancement with other managers
The counterintuitive reality: Employees who seem completely loyal and committed often get the smallest increases. Why? Because leadership assumes they'll stay regardless. The budget gets allocated to retention risks instead.
This doesn't mean you should threaten to quit or fake interview processes. It means demonstrating that you're actively managing your career and have options creates natural urgency around your advancement.
Why This System Exists (And Why It Actually Makes Business Sense)
Before you get angry at the apparent unfairness of this process, understand the business logic driving these decisions.
Budget optimization: Most companies have fixed compensation budgets. Giving everyone meaningful increases would blow the budget. Leadership allocates larger increases strategically to people who've demonstrated they want advancement or might leave without it.
Intent signaling: Asking for promotion signals ambition, forward-thinking, and leadership potential. People who never ask often lack the initiative leadership is looking for in advanced roles.
Retention efficiency: It's exponentially cheaper to retain good employees than recruit, hire, and train replacements. Flight risk assessment isn't malicious - it's practical business management.
Performance assumption: If you're being discussed in promotion planning, leadership already assumes you're performing adequately. The question isn't whether you're good at your job - it's whether you want to advance and what it takes to keep you.
Risk management: Promoting people who actively want advancement reduces the risk of them leaving for growth opportunities elsewhere. It aligns company investment with employee ambition.
The system prioritizes demonstrated intent over assumed merit because intent predicts retention and future performance better than current performance predicts promotion readiness.
Companies have learned that promoting content, high-performing employees often creates new problems - they may not want the additional responsibility, may resent being pushed into advancement they didn't seek, or may struggle with leadership challenges they never intended to face.
Why Asking for a Promotion Matters More Than Performance
Understanding why most high performers never ask for promotion reveals the fundamental disconnect between how employees think advancement works and how it actually works.
Fear of appearing entitled: Many people believe asking for promotion seems presumptuous or entitled. They think good work should speak for itself and requesting advancement demonstrates arrogance.
The "performance first" mythology: We're taught that exceptional performance automatically leads to promotion. This creates a mindset where asking feels like jumping ahead in line - like you should "earn" promotion through work quality before requesting it.
Lack of specificity: When people do ask, they often make vague requests like "I'd like to grow my career" or "I'm interested in advancement opportunities." Leadership needs concrete asks - specific roles, salary targets, timeline expectations.
Timing ignorance: Most people don't know when promotion decisions actually get made. They ask during performance review seasons when budgets are already allocated, rather than during planning cycles when decisions are formulated.
Authority confusion: Many employees ask their direct managers about promotion when those managers often have limited influence over advancement decisions. The conversation needs to happen with people who have budget authority and strategic input.
The irony that keeps high performers stuck: The employees who most "deserve" promotion based on performance often don't get it because they don't signal intent. Meanwhile, average performers who ask strategically get advanced because they've demonstrated ambition and created urgency around their retention.
This creates a perverse outcome where the most modest, performance-focused employees get overlooked while more politically savvy employees advance faster.
The system rewards people who understand how advancement actually works, not necessarily people who excel at their current responsibilities.
How to Ask for a Promotion Strategically
Knowing how promotion decisions really get made, you can approach advancement strategically rather than hoping performance alone will be sufficient.
Timing your conversations: Promotion planning typically happens 3-6 months before budget implementation. Learn your company's planning cycle and initiate advancement conversations during planning periods, not after decisions are finalized.
Making specific requests: Instead of expressing general interest in "growth," propose specific advancement: "I'm interested in the Senior Analyst role and believe I'm ready based on [specific criteria]. I'd like to discuss a timeline for advancement and what additional development would strengthen my candidacy."
Creating appropriate urgency: You don't need to threaten to quit, but demonstrating that you're actively managing your career creates natural urgency. Mentions of industry networking, professional development, or recruiter inquiries signal that you have options without being confrontational.
Understanding the decision-makers: Your direct manager might be your advocate, but they're often not the decision-maker. Understand who actually has budget authority and promotion approval power. Build relationships and visibility with those people appropriately.
Framing retention value: Help leadership understand what they'd lose if you left and what they'd gain by advancing you. Quantify your impact, highlight knowledge transfer costs, and position your advancement as investment in proven capability.
The Job Rubric Method becomes even more powerful when combined with strategic intent signaling. You're not just building readiness for advancement - you're actively communicating that readiness to decision-makers in terms they understand and at times when they can act on it.
What Every Employee Should Know About Promotion Meetings
After sitting in dozens of promotion planning meetings, here's what I wish every employee understood:
Your performance review score doesn't determine your raise. Budget allocation and retention strategy do.
Your manager's opinion matters, but budget holders make final decisions. Build relationships beyond your immediate supervisor.
Timing is everything. The best advancement case presented after decisions are made is less effective than an average case presented during planning cycles.
Specificity beats generality. "I want the Operations Manager role with $X salary by Q2" generates action. "I'd like to grow" generates standard increases.
Intent signaling is a skill. Learning to communicate advancement interest professionally and strategically is as important as developing job competencies.
The system isn't broken - you just weren't taught how it actually works. Companies promote people who demonstrate they want advancement and have alternatives if they don't get it.
Most importantly: The promotion meeting you're not in operates by different rules than the performance management process you are in. Understanding both systems and navigating them strategically is how advancement actually happens.
The bottom line: Performance gets you considered for promotion discussions. Asking gets you promoted.
This is exactly why the Job Rubric Method includes strategic intent signaling as a core component. Building readiness is only half the equation - communicating that readiness to decision-makers at the right time completes the promotion process.
Ready to Get Double-Promoted by Working the Real System?
Now that you understand how promotion decisions actually get made, you can approach advancement strategically instead of hoping performance alone will be sufficient.
The Job Rubric Method shows you not just how to build promotion readiness, but how to signal that readiness to decision-makers in terms they understand and at times when they can act on it. When I used this systematic approach, my case was so compelling that leadership recommended skipping me ahead two levels.
Download our free guide: "Get Double-Promoted: The Job Rubric Method" and discover:
How to time advancement conversations with your company's actual decision-making cycles
The specific language that transforms vague "growth interests" into promotion-triggering requests
Strategic approaches to flight risk signaling that create urgency without ultimatums
Scripts for advancement conversations with actual budget holders and decision-makers
The systematic method for building and communicating promotion readiness using your company's own criteria
[Ready to get double-promoted? Get instant access to the complete guide + templates below.]
Stop waiting for recognition. Start working the system that actually determines advancement.
The promotion meeting you're not in doesn't have to decide your future without your input. When you understand how the system really works, you can influence those decisions before they're made.